Cotton production estimates, prices fluctuate: analysis


The cotton production estimates and prices kept fluctuating mainly benefiting the consumers who have an eye on EU package that has been Okayed by WTO committee.

The spot opened at Rs 5800 and during the week which closed on February 4,2012 was reduced by Rs 100 to Rs 5700.


Cotton futures fluctuating with some gap has been showing losing to come down March contract at 95.61 cents a pound.

The world scenario – the US budgetary deficit, Middle-East tenseness and European concern as Greece debt problems which to authorities are not inclined, smoothen affecting not only cotton but all commodities.

In Pakistan prices are being contested by both the growers and sellers.

A third party is being sought by sellers to buy over one million bales of cotton to ease monetary problem of the growers and ginners.

PM has agreed but the consumers are contesting the call, in their view is against free trade mechanism.

The neighbouring India is facing upset-not many weeks ago calling exporters to start exporting some two million bales, but the spot position is that Pakistan exporters are being contacted, rather imports have started by that country.

China out of lunar new year celebration is considering to start buying with hurling a request call to keep prices reasonable.

China plans to reserve lower acreage for the current crop season.

However, there are countries who grow cotton and depend only on exports, like CIS Australia and Brazil have reported bulk production and ready to supply needy countries if approached.

On Monday the NY cotton futures finished with hefty losses, caught in the downdraft of selling that pulled most other commodities lower with the euro as Greece appeared unlikely to reach a deal to restructure private-sector debt.

Benchmark March cotton on ICE Futures US slid 1.46 cents, or 1.53 percent, to end at 94.15 cents per lb, and set a range between 94.11 to 96.30.Selling was heavy.

Volume in the March contract was 13,422 by the end.

Nevertheless, support was in place with a double-bottom that formed with the January 12 low, suggesting prices were unlikely to keep falling in the short term.

On Tuesday the NY cotton futures ended lower for a second session as easing supply worries and a dollar rise amid economic worries prompted investors to sell.

Cotton ended up nearly two percent January for its second consecutive monthly gain, as better sentiment in the commodity complex lifted cotton after a 10 percent drop in November.

Benchmark March cotton on ICE Futures US eased 0.9 cents at 93.25 cents per lb, in a range between 93.11 to 95.29 cents.

On Wednesday N Y cotton futures ended higher, reversing losses in the previous two sessions, as the greater gains in deferred contracts indicated demand was recovering.

Benchmark March cotton on ICE Futures US edged up 0.14 cent at 93.39 cents per lb, and ranged from 93.20 to 94.21 cents.

“Added carrying charges indicate the market demand is returning to a more normal posture given ample supplies,” said John Flanagan of Flanagan Trading Corp in North Carolina.

The higher prices for deferred contracts, which cover the cost of carrying or storing cotton, suggests that cotton is in a bull market, Flanagan said.

Volume was in line with recent pace but fell below its 30-day average.

The market now looks forward to next Thursday’s US Department of Agriculture monthly cotton supply and demand report.

And next Friday, US industry group National Cotton Council will issue its annual survey of potential US cotton plantings in 2012.

Open interest, an indicator of market liquidity, rose to 172,686 lots as of Tuesday versus 168,169 lots on Monday, ICE Futures US data showed.

Tuesday’s volume stood at 34,060 lots, above Monday’s tally of 25,075 lots, exchange data showed.

On Thursday the NY cotton futures finished higher on follow-through investor, commercial and possible fund buying boosting the market and could give fiber contracts a sustained lift in the days ahead, dealers said.

Benchmark March cotton on ICE Futures US increased 0.82 cent to close at 94.21 cents per lb, dealing from 92.69 to 94.88 cents.

Open interest in cotton, an indicator of investor exposure in the market, has risen over 10,000 lots over the past three sessions to 178,051 lots as of February 1, ICE Futures US data showed.

Volume traded on Thursday stood at over 23,800 lots, around two-thirds above the 30-day average, according to preliminary Thomson Reuters data.

On Friday, the NY cotton futures surged on investor buying fuelled in part by a strong US jobs report and worries over floods in Australia which may damage the cotton crop there.

Financial and commodity markets were given a boost by Labour Department data showing that the US economy created jobs at the fastest pace in nine months in January, far outpacing analyst expectations, while the unemployment rate dropped to a near three-year low of 8.3 percent.

Benchmark March cotton on ICE Futures US rose 2.13 cents, or 2.2 percent, to close at 96.34 cents per lb, dealing from 94.12 to 97.86 cents, adds Reuters.

LOCAL TRADING On Monday higher prices restricted cotton trading to just 10,000 bales at Rs 4250 and Rs 6000, spot rate was put at Rs 5800, while phutti in Sindh ruled at Rs 1800 and Rs 2400.

In Punjab phutti was quoted at Rs 2000 and Rs 2750.

The sellers wait ended with new years holiday in most countries China leading.

India too hit by shortfall was in search of surplus areas.

Pakistan was its next door cotton growing country.

In the world such as America plans to cut acreage, in view of the other crops ensuring higher margin of profit such as corn and Soya beans etc.

Players are anxiously watching slow down in economic process and statement by economists.

On Tuesday spot rate was slashed amidst modest trading – to reach Rs 5700.

The market operators saw development the result of noise TCP was coming.

However close circles believe, entry was perhaps not okayed.

Nearly 14000, bales of cotton changed hands at Rs 5200 and Rs 6000.

The ginners are adamant for not pulling prices down, authorities are refusing to suggested steps to induct third buyer.

On Wednesday approximately 15,000 bales of cotton were lifted by consumers assumingly at higher rate on receipt of WTO news committee of which has okay and EU package ensuring waiver on duties for 75 products from Pakistan.

No doubt the favour will give boost to textile leather and industrial alcohol.

However, the cotton purchase was at Rs 4400 and Rs 6000 per maund official spot rate was put at Rs 5700, phutti in Sindh was around Rs 1800 and Rs 2450, in Punjab it was selling at Rs 2000 and Rs 2750.

On Thursday trading in cotton was firm where consumers lifted just 9000 bales at Rs 4400 and Rs 5000, phutti in Sindh was put at Rs 1800 and Rs 2450 while in Punjab rules at a Rs 2000 and Rs 2700.

It is now seen by market operators that production may touch 14.4 million bales, much above predicted and expected by some cotton observers.

However authorities are duty bound to watch right from harvest to actual needs so that minus ethical mover are introduced for some interest.

On Friday seedcotton rates came down as a result of better-than-expected arrival figures issued by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA).

The official spot rate was unchanged at Rs 5,700.

Prices of seedcotton in Sindh were at Rs 1800-2400 and in the Punjab at Rs 2000-2700.

In ready dealings approximately 6,000 bales of cotton changed hands at Rs 4,400-5800,

WTO OKAYS Eu’S PACKAGE FOR PAKISTAN, INDEED!The WTO body has Okayed a EU waiver on duties for 75 products from Pakistan.

The package was being dumped for nearly two years as leading half a dozen nation were not finding any meeting point for such long.

Any way more lamenting would be waste of energy.

In Pakistan delay has been ignored and according to report the gift is being nearly celebrated.

The waiver has been noted came after long drawn exercise still is being dubbed as given on humanitarian reasons unprecedented.

The manufacturers and exporters of textile items have been in trance and are not seemingly in a hurry to express heartful thanks.

The waiver affects many of Pakistanis most important export products including textiles, leather, and industrial alcohol.

The imports of the 75 products from Pakistan are worth almost Euros 900 million, accounting about 27percent of EU imports from Pakistan according to EU’s waiver request submitted to the WTO council for Trade in goods.

The slightly expressed above is because today world is claimed to be global village.

But where this claim invites reservation among village people.

However, will it not be yet another advice, advanced by sources who see Pakistan strong enough to survive natural or man made road blocks.

Pakistan feel in the past and still-has God given resources to serve and aid the needy world.

TCP HAS STILL TO ENTER MARKET TO BUY The Prime Minister while allowing finally to the plea of growers and ginners to procure cotton that would ensure better return to them must have gauged squarely whether decision was not to hurt other players.

The fact that exports are made for image to gains of primarily slimming kitty to ensure development of projects and two square meals of people.

We all have to look back how far we have bettered this country during over two decade from the point of advance.

To honour Prime Minister’s assurance to induct TCP, the government has approved the rate of cotton at Rs 6500.

This is Rs 1000 lower than the ruling prices and naturally won’t please the buyers who will ultimately have to invest of comment raw materials and process of exports.

Now the question arises.

Whether growers are certain to enjoy the supposed gains? According to report 90 percent of cotton bales have already arrived.

The growers won’t now enjoy the benefit of 90 percent done.

However, market operators point of view that growers still have over 1.5 million bales over which they may earn better then deals so far finalised.

The knowledgeable point to another irksome point that as far as small growers are concerned they never got the full payment of sold crop.

If claim to true authorities should clears cotton and textile sector of dirt.

Authorities should ensure ways leading to higher exports.

DESPERATE BID TO GET GAS SUPPLY BY TEX MILLERS Winter is in with message to stay longer than it used be in the past.

The February would be end-month and the young and daring abhorred ever normal gentle wears.

But our industries, particularly our life-nerve textiles products suffered inevitable for short sightedness of the rulers who have preferred walk-over.

The result is that the textile millers and made-up exporters are showing restlessness resorting often to threats to strike or pronouncing deficit textile exports have suffered such and PC loss.

In their expression of disgust not their own making they close down units with telling effect on the hardly coming investment – internal or external.

The exports sweat and blood is coming but not that size and height that poured into this country as world faced recession not seen in decades.

Now renowned world economists and rulers of the world talk in whispers God forbid recession repeats itself.

The world super power left alone now after defacing well-settled Soviet Union is reaping the gains or otherwise for almost outlook change of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Now in the present move textile millers called for gas supply diversion from CPP to Gencos.

If the diversion a surety who on earth textile millers and relevant authorities talk and even gave a shape.

The bell has rung and sound has reached round the corners of this country it is hoped shape of things textile millers want to emerge.

Strainin mind and arranging resources is desirable if the suggestion carried any substance.

TCP LIKELY TO PROCURE COTTON The growers should shed their self imposed multi faceted fear harboured since centuries by insisting fair return of their labour and investment.

Help from outside is not always welcome.

Authorities may not take the support in the light it forth came.

Authorities can do away with the wrongs pervading in cotton and textile sectors.

These have suffered decades and fall for short of counterparts doing textile business anywhere on earth – China and India are doing far better.

The exporters in this country suffer because the potential God has bestowed upon us has not been developed and improved hurling wrong doings on those who have been out clear of accountability.

That a third buyers is introduced to buy cotton or for any reason neither is related with economic principle nor touches the ethical core.

If God favours growers with bumper crop the consumers should press them for selling at throw away prices by adopting dilly-dallying until crop gets coloured or loses shine and invited lengthy bargain.

Pakistan, we don’t read in history, but even today neighbours get wheat, sugar, cotton etc through smuggling, what the sources are trying to stress God has provided enough how and why inflation is found unmanageable.

The wrong has to be traced to erase prevailing disfranchisement.

Among growers some are voiceless, who some how struggle to service.