Output will drop 3.7 percent to 25.7 million tons in the season starting in August as consumption climbs 4.1 percent to 23.7 million tons, Cotlook said in its first estimate for the new season. The surplus was 3.9 million tons a year earlier, it said. Plantings will drop 3.3 percent this year, it said.
“The statistics indicate a substantial net surplus,” Cotlook said.
Cotton futures dropped 37 percent last year on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.
Planted area expanded by 11 percent in the 2011-12 marketing year and production jumped 14 percent, Cotlook said.
Output in China, the world’s biggest cotton producer, will fall 10 percent to 6.4 million tons, Cotlook said. Consumption in China will rise 3.4 percent, it said. Output in India, the second-largest producer, is forecast to decline 4.3 percent in 2012-13 as usage in the Indian subcontinent gains 6.9 percent, according to the report.