Despite expanded world trade in 2011/12, U.S. exports declined due to tight exportable supplies caused by low beginning stocks and a drought-impacted crop. As a result, the United States lost market share in nearly all major markets this year. In contrast, major competitors Brazil and Australia harvested near record crops resulting in abundant exportable supplies.
China is the only major market where U.S. exports rose (jumping 30 percent), but U.S. share of that market actually fell. China’s policy of rebuilding stocks caused imports to double. India, and to a lesser extent Brazil and Australia, moved aggressively to fill this additional demand.
In all other major markets, U.S. exports and market share both declined. Even in South Korea, where total imports rose, U.S. exports were down. Brazil captured the largest share of that market, and along with Australia, expanded its market share in Turkey and Southeast Asia.
For 2012/13, world production is lowered and consumption is virtually unchanged. U.S. exports are raised by 300,000 bales. The forecast season average US farm price remains at 70 cents/pound.
After a major drop in prices from April through June, both the A-Index and the U.S. Spot Price stabilized in late June and early July.
2012/13 TRADE OUTLOOK
• Australia is up 200,000 bales to 4.5 million on large beginning stocks and ample supply.
• Brazil falls 100,000 bales to 4.0 million on decreased production in 2011/12.
• India drops 300,000 bales to 3.7 million on lower production.
• United States jumps 300,000 bales to 12.1 million on less competition from other suppliers.
• Uzbekistan rises 150,000 bales to 2.75 million on less competition from other suppliers.
• India is up 300,000 bales to 1.0 million on higher use and lower beginning stocks.
Trade Changes 2011/12
• Brazil is down 100,000 bales to 4.8 million on lower production.
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