Global cotton production will exceed demand by 1.15 million metric tons in the 12 months starting Aug. 1, Cotlook Inc. said in its first forecast for next season.
The surplus will be 3.54 million tons this season, Birkenhead, U.K.-based Cotlook, the publisher of a benchmark cotton index, said today in a statement.
World output will drop 7.3 percent to 24.3 million tons, Cotlook said. Production in China, the world’s largest grower, will fall 8.9 percent to 6.65 million. The crop in the U.S., the top exporter, will tumble 24 percent to 2.87 million tons.
Global consumption will rise 2.1 percent to 23.2 million tons, Cotlook said. Demand in the Indian subcontinent will climb 3.7 percent to 8.22 million.
Cotton prices in New York have gained 11 percent this year on signs of lower global output and rising demand. The contract for May delivery fell 1.5 percent to settle at 83.23 cents a pound today on ICE Futures U.S.
Cotlook, which has published cotton news for 85 years, issues the Cotlook A Index, which reflects offer prices for cargoes delivered to the Far East.