International Cotton Market Report as on 11th July 2016

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Last Night NYC Closing – 11-07-2016

Month Change Open High Low Settle In PKR Maund
OCT-16 2.22 66.37 68.15 66.37 68.14 5847.97
DEC-16 1.97 65.94 67.85 65.88 67.78 5817.07
MAR-17 1.91 65.96 67.91 65.96 67.84 5822.22
MAY-17 1.85 66.43 68.05 66.43 67.99 5835.09
JUL-17 1.68 66.97 68.19 66.97 68.25 5857.41
OCT-17 1.47 68.31 5862.56
cotton tech chart

Bullish Patterns

During a downtrend, there is a massive sell off after the candle starts. However, the candle closes at or near its high and at the same level as the open. This signifies a weakening of the previous bearish sentiment. The longer the lower shadow, the smaller the upper shadow, and the smaller the real body, the more significant the pattern is. White real body is more bullish than black body.

Bearish Patterns

After a long white candlestick at the high end of an uptrend, a candlestick opens lower or at the previous candlestick’s close, ends within the body of the first candlestick and signals that the current uptrend is losing strength. It is more significant reversal pattern than the basic Harami Bearish. The shadows of the second candlestick do not have to be contained within the first candle’s body, though it’s preferable if they are. The second candlestick body can be either white or black.

World & Domestic Cotton Market

Current Price Prices on same Date Last Year (13-07-2015)
COTLOOK
Cotlook Index
(cents/lb)
‘A’ Index
76.50 72.75
USA
New York Cotton Market Contract No.2
(cents/lb)’Oct-2016 68.14 65.51
Dec-2016 67.78 65.52
(11-07-2016)
CHINA
China Cotton Index
Yuan/M . Ton
13,666 13,203
(12-07-2016)
INDIA
S6 29 MM 45200-45700 34500-34800
V797 – 22-23 mm 27000-32200 24500-25500
MCU5 30-31 mm 46400-47300 34500-35000
PAKISTAN
Karachi Cotton Association (Spot Rate) 5,885 4,800
Ex-Karachi
(11-07-2016)
6,307 5,143
Rs. per 40 kgs.
Rs. per maund
(Equivalent cents/lb.)
68.57 57.47

We now expect massive losses to crops across Eastern China from the almost unbelievable floods and rains that have hit the region. China’s average precipitation for the year to date has reached 341 MM which is up 21% from a year earlier. Heavy 100-250 MM rains occurred along the Yangtze River and the South last week. The season’s first Typhoon reached China over the weekend. Heavy rains also occurred in Xinjiang last week. We expect the 2016 crop to fall to 4.2 MMT or less or just below 20 million bales. Thus the production consumption deficit in 16/17 will reach over 17 million bales. This will mean that after over half the Reserve stocks will have been absorbed in 15/16 and 16/17 providing some hope for prices in future seasons.

US Cotton Statistics

Total Futures Volume 25,612
Floor Call Options Volume 0
Floor Put Options Volumes 0
Total Options Volume 4,005
Grand Totel 29,617
Source: ICE Dated: 08-03-2016

NYC Closing For The Week #27

Days Price Open High Low Change %
11-Jul-16 66.23 65.92 66.28 65.91 0.67%
08-Jul-16 65.79 64.92 66.75 64.52 1.29%
07-Jul-16 64.95 65.49 65.63 64.48 -0.89%
06-Jul-16 65.53 65.56 65.58 64.56 0.14%
05-Jul-16 65.44 66.12 66.12 64.27 0.62%
Source: ICE Dated: 11-07-2016

CZCE Cotton Contracts – 12-07-2016

Product Volume Open Interest
CF607 1,000 5,526
CF609 145,490 98,818
CF611 258 2,162
CF701 931,096 426,664
CF703 156 584
CF705 17,264 33,670
Source: CZCE

China CZCE Cotton – 12-07-2016

Product Open High Low Closing Settle Net Cng.
CF607 14,100.00 14,400.00 14,035.00 14,400.00 14,160.00 105.00
CF609 14,115.00 14,700.00 13,990.00 14,685.00 14,355.00 120.00
CF611 14,300.00 14,965.00 14,295.00 14,925.00 14,715.00 275.00
CF701 14,440.00 15,060.00 14,335.00 15,045.00 14,715.00 160.00
CF703 14,360.00 14,950.00 14,335.00 14,950.00 14,580.00 100.00
CF705 14,490.00 15,005.00 14,355.00 15,000.00 14,660.00 165.00
Source: CZCE

USA Certified Stock

Number of bales that are simultaneously in both
Certificated stock and the CCC loan as of Jul 08
Country Stock As of New Certified Decret Orders Current Stock   Non-Rain Grown
Points 07-Jul 08-Jul 08-Jul 08-Jul Awaiting review (F.Western)
Dallas 41,702 0 1,495 40,207
0 0
Galveston, TX 2,548 0 56 2,492 0 0
Greenville, SC 172 0 0 172 0 0
Houston, TX 1,180 0 0 1,180 0 0
Memphis, TN 89,561 0 0 89,561 0 0
New Orleans 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 135,163 0 1,551 133,612 0 0
usa certified stock

Top Export Customers for U.S. Raw Cotton

(Thou. 480-Lb Bales)
Ranking as of June 30, 2016
Rank Country MY 2015 % of MY15 Total MY 2016 % of MY16 Total
1 VIETNAM 1,925 20% 131 6%
2 TURKEY 1,579 16% 187 9%
3 MEXICO 1,101 11% 741 36%
4 CHINA 870 9% 47 2%
5 INDONESIA 692 7% 164 8%
6 KOREAN REPUBLIC 510 5% 118 6%
7 THAILAND 426 4% 73 4%
8 PAKISTAN 419 4% 121 6%
9 TAIWAN 326 3% 36 2%
10 INDIA 293 3% 72 4%
  TOTAL 9,703 100% 2,053 100%

Bremer Cotton Exchange in cent/lbs – 6th July. 2016

Country Ex-Rate Shipment Last Week High Low Offered Settle
Sudan Barakat G 3 B 7/8 115,00 115,00 115,00 115,00 115,00
East Africa SM 1.3/32″ 7/8 77,50 77,50 77,00 77,17 77,50
C.I.S SM 1.3/32″ 7/8 78,00 78,00 77,00 77,58 78,00
C.I.S M 1.3/32″ 7 77,00 77,00 76,00 76,42 77,00
Greece SM 1.3/32″ n.q.N n.q n.q
Greece M 1.3/32″ n.q.N n.q n.q
Spain SM 1.3/32″ 7/8 79,00 N n.q n.q
Spain M 1.3/32″ 7/8 77,00 N n.q n.q
Brazil SM 1.3/32″ 7/8 78,50 78,75 77,75 78,17 78,75
Brazil M 1.3/32″ 7/8 77,50 77,75 76,00 76,88 77,75
Argentina SM 1.3/32″ n.q n.q n.q
India S-6 1.3/32″ 7/8 86,00 89,25 85,00 87,42 88,00
Pakistan M 1.3/32″ 76,75N 83,00 78,00 81,00 82,00N
USA Pima Gr 2, 1.7/16″ 7/8 151,00 151,00 149,00 150,33 151,00
AFR Franc-Zone SM 1.3/32″ 7/8 77,50 77,50 77,00 77,19 77,50
AFR Franc-Zone M 1.3/32″ 7/8 76,50 76,50 76,00 76,19 76,50
USA Eastern /M./O./T SM 1.3/32″ 7/8 79,00 79,75 78,50 78,88 79,00
USA Eastern /M./O./T M 1.3/32″ 7/8 78,00 78,25 77,50 77,75 78,00
Turkey Southeast Extra 1.3/32″ n.q –  n.q. n.q.
Egypt Giza 86 Season 14/15/16 7/8 116,00 116,00 114,00 115,33 116,00
Egypt Giza 88 G+3/8 7/8 198,00 198,00 198,00 198,00 198,00
Israel Pima H-1  1.7/16″ 7/8 148,00 150,00 150,00 150,00 150,00

MCX Cotton

MCX

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