MCX Cotton market under long liquidation

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Cotton on MCX settled down by -1.32% at 21600 on profit booking after prices gained on lower output estimates of fibre and weak sowing prospects due to delayed monsoon. Cotton output in 2015-16 will likely fall to 33.8 million bales from 35.2 million bales previous estimates and 38.6 million bales last year, the Cotton Advisory Board said after its meeting. Total cotton acreage in 2015-16 is estimated at 11.91 million hectares as compared to 12.84 million hectares a year ago. Punjab cotton output estimates for 2015-16 was lowered to 750,000 bales compared to 1.3 million bales a year earlier with yield at 320.35 kilogram per hectare compared to 526.19 kilogram per hectare in the previous year.

Haryana cotton output estimates for 2015-16 was lowered to 1.5 million bales compared to 2.3 million bales a year earlier with yield at 414.63 kilogram per hectare compared to 603.40 kilogram per hectare in the previous year. India 2016-17 cotton kharif sowing till Jul 22 stood at 8.68 million hectare as compared to 9.95 million hectare same period year ago. Cotton sowing in Gujarat, major fibre producing state, slumped by 24.80% to 1.76 million hectares up-till Jul 18 on late arrivals of monsoon.

Total cotton sowing in Maharashtra till Jul 18 at 3.34 million hectares, lower compared to 3.82 million hectares in 2015-16 and 4.19 million hectares in 2014-15. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.64% to settled at 628 while prices down -290 rupee, now Cotton is getting support at 21464 and below same could see a test of 21327 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21794, a move above could see prices testing 21987.

Trading Ideas:

–Cotton trading range for the day is 21327-21987.

–Cotton prices dropped on profit booking after prices gained on lower output estimates of fibre and weak sowing prospects due to delayed monsoon.

–India 2016-17 cotton kharif sowing till Jul 22 stood at 8.68 million hectare as compared to 9.95 million hectare same period year ago.

–Cotton sowing in Gujarat, major fibre producing state, slumped by 24.80% to 1.76 million hectares up-till now on late arrivals of monsoon.

–Cotton prices in spot market dropped by 230.00 rupees and settled at 22620.00 rupees.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities

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